Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
