Back in 2018, it took just eight words to electrify a Labour conference and to show Labour was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. While not exactly stirring rhetoric, the words met with rapturous applause as most of the hall rose in an impromptu ovation.
When the noise subsided, the then-Brexit spokesman, remained at the lectern, visibly startled. He was unaccustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.
In that deeply polarized period in 2018, departing from the prepared script in this way was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise leave supporters in key constituencies above the pro-European instincts of his party. With that single address, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against the leadership he later succeeded.
The Evolution in Position & Closed Debates
Since then, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the EU question had been settled by the 2019 general election. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed unbreakable pledge promises that forbade re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.
Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in target constituencies, even if polling evidence indicates many of them have passed away or shifted opinion.
A Lid That Rattles on the EU
Yet, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled Labour leader. And, if Europe may not be the boiling pot of British politics, a lid which was firmly shut since Brexit is starting to loosen again.
Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up the rhetoric about the devastation that leaving the EU has caused to the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick with which to beat Nigel Farage, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was his primary goal and is still his only real achievement.
And yet, the scale of the damage, reportedly has left Britain with an economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, dwarfs the micro-mitigation so far offered by the government. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal negotiated with the EU last summer provides gains quantified in low decimal points.
Internal Pressure & Bolder Ideas
The chancellor is one of those trying to overcome long-standing interior ministry opposition to a broader scheme designed to boost growth youth mobility scheme allowing young people can travel between the UK and the EU to study or work.
The deputy prime minister has pondered publicly about the “self-evident” benefits of joining a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, recently supported a Liberal Democrat motion on customs union membership.
While Nick Thomas-Symonds, who oversees UK-EU relations, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, insists the firm boundaries are still in place, there are ways to work around them. A proposal would be to declaring the commencement of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after Labour won a new electoral mandate.
The Prime Minister's Fundamental Doubts
Yet, Starmer has lately been damping it all down again by warning rejoining a European customs area could undermine the trade pacts with America, which he regards as key accomplishments of his government.
It is understood that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, stemming from several key concerns.
- Firstly, he thinks any customs union agreement has been made significantly more difficult because his ministers busily de-aligning from EU regulations in numerous policy areas, including the environment.
- Second, the prohibitive cost set for the UK to join a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse of negotiations has led UK negotiators that former EU partners have little interest in offering favorable terms with Britain than in demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
- Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, praised by Moscow, is seen by some influential figures in Number 10 as grounds for Britain to keep its distance from the EU.
An Alarming Strategy & Strategic Calculations
This strange and concerning document claims Europe is threatened by “civilizational erasure” due to immigration. It contains a single mention of the UK, placed beside a suggestion that Donald Trump’s administration may interfere in our politics to encourage the rise of nationalist movements.
But, far from concluding that this makes the US an unreliable partner, ministers reportedly fear that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by endangering fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.
Leadership Speculation & The Ghost of 2018
All of which returns us to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not an attempt for the leadership but simply an attempt to keep open the “option” of remain in a future vote. In fact, back then, he still supported a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.
Observers within the Prime Minister's office have noticed that the Health Secretary, widely considered would stand in any leadership election, is among a clutch of senior ministers signaling they want to go further regarding the EU.
Staff for Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a contest for the top job, insist she won’t discuss her position on a customs union because it would only “escalate unhelpful speculation”.
The Obvious Danger and A Prudent Reminder
The danger is obvious. Should the PM reject significant moves towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to claim the territory where most of the party's supporters reside.
It would be wise of him to recall the effect that a short phrase had on his career seven years ago. There are options for a big offer on Europe that the prime minister ought to consider; he should prise them open personally, rather than letting rivals adopt them as their own.
