A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
